Ehud Yaari Briefing June 30, 2008

Ehud Yaari, well-known Israeli commentator, gave us an impressive and extensive briefing from a more moderate Israeli perspective. Yaari draws on his extensive relationships throughout the Middle East and his fluency in several languages. He is an effective presenter because he sets out his information in bullet points!

Iran:

1. Iranians must present themselves as Muslims, not Persians, because of the historical animosity between the Arabs and Persians.
2. Iran is not seeking territory, but dominance and hegemony. They are buying influence and friends.
3. Iran is marketing their aspirations to be "Big Brother" by saying that the era of US dominance in Asia is over, and the era of "Others" is upon us. Iran and China are the most important others, and not India in their belief.
4. So they are pushing for a marriage with China to be in control of Asia.
5. Iran believes that the key response to the superior technology of the West is simple. They are not looking for victory, but to deny the US and/or Israel victory. Denying victory to the West will lead to their capitulation, they believe.
6. Though there is still a huge divide between the Sunnis and Shiites, Iran has created several Sunni alliances with such terrorist groups as Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.
7. Yaari does not see the moderate Sunni countries opposing Iran, since many of them are afraid that their power will be impacted.

Nuclear Situation:

1. Yaari believes that Iran wants to get to the threshold of building nuclear weapons and not cross that threshold.
2. He also believes that there is a little more time to deter Iran from crossing that threshold, maybe 2 years.
3. He believes that the technological problems in their program are serious. Heavy water plant is years away, the quality of the fuel is not there. Russia is selling Iran low quality, taking their money and keeping them behind schedule. He believes that the Iranians are years behind schedule.
4. The Arabs are saying that, if the Shias have a bomb, then the Sunnis will have one. Saudi Arabia funded Pakistan's program and can get one from them. The Egyptians are talking of taking their program that was mothballed in 1979 and bringing it back into service.
5. Israel is upgrading its Arrow Missile defense to protect military bases first (a huge message to the Iranians). Israel also has the ability to strike from the sea with its submarines.
6. He believes that economic sanctions can work since there is already rationing of fuel in Iran, dealing with a massive reduction in oil production. He believes that Iran can be deterred for a price and that the US, France and Germany are exploring that price. He feels that any answer will have to wait until after the US Presidential election.

Iraq:

1. US can rightfully declare a victory over Al Qaeda in the Sunni areas.
2. In the Shia areas there is already a tacit agreement with Iran in southern Iraq, with Iran playing the arbitrator between the various Shia factions, and preferring that fracturing.
3. This tacit agreement is the start of a big bargain.
4. Moderate Sunnis, both within and outside Iraq are concerned about any such grand bargain.

Gaza:

Yaari believes that his opinion is definitely a minority opinion within Israel

1. Hamas was desperate for a cease fire. They are supposed to lay down their arms and make sure that the shooting stops.
2. He believes that Hamas will be better than the Palestinian Authority in stopping the shooting because they need to consolidate their power.
3. He says that the Egyptians are being strong, but that the Bedouins control the Sinai and are heavily involved in smuggling.
4. He asserted that more weapons are coming from the Balkans from fishing boats than from Egypt though the Philadelphia Zone on the west side of Gaza. It is too difficult for the Israeli Navy to interdict
5. Hamas is willing to give up control of the government administration. It regrets having taken control. When (if) that happens, a unified Palestinian Authority and Hamas government can that negotiate with Israel.

My Opinion:

Yarri's remarks were very detailed, but he did not answer the fundamental question about what Israel should do to respond to the continued truce violations that are leading to shootings and missile attacks on sovereign Israeli territory and the death and injury of so many civilians. I felt that his suggestions for dealing with Iran through sanctions would work, if you could somehow have the participation of France and Germany. If that cannot happen now with the current leadership in both countries, then there is no chance that those sanctions will work in the future. Based on the current situation, it is likely that the world is heading towards a frightening, but necessary, confrontation with Iran.

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